ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

The disturbance does not appear to a have a well-defined center,
but if there is one trying to form, it has to be a little farther
to the northwest near the convection. In fact, fixes from both TAFB
and SAB suggest that a possible center is within the small area of
convection. Partial ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance remains
poorly organized at this time.

With the disturbance approaching land, the chances of it becoming a
tropical storm or even a depression before landfall are diminishing.
However, the system could reach 35 kt within the next 6 hours or so.
Once inland, dissipation over the high terrain of southern Mexico is
anticipated.

Since there is not a well-defined center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315
degrees at 11 kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the
extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the
disturbance toward the northwest with no change is forward speed.
This motion is forecast by most of the global models which bring
the disturbance inland quite soon.

The primary threat from this disturbance is heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico during
the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 15.4N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  16/1800Z 16.5N  96.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 18.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN