ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Although deep convection associated with the area of low pressure near the southeastern coast of Mexico has increased since this afternoon, the overall organization of the system has not increased enough for it to be considered a tropical cyclone. The system, however, is predicted to become a tropical storm before it reaches the southeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday, and NHC has initiated advisories on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. The government of Mexico has elected to issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of southeastern Mexico. The initial intensity of the system is estimated to be 30 kt based on earlier scatterometer data. The disturbance is located over very warm waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear, which should allow for some strengthening before the system moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the disturbance to become a tropical storm in 12 hours, and it is in good agreement with the statistical guidance and the global models which show some slight deepening. The system should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico after landfall. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 300/9 kt. A mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer the disturbance west-northwestward during the next day or so, and this motion should bring the center on the coast within 24 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The primary threat with this system will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.7N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 14.6N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 17/0000Z 16.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 17.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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