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Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 106.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.6 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of
northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little additional change in strength is expected
before Narda interacts with the coast of mainland Mexico. Weakening
should begin on Tuesday as Narda moves along the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.  A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was reported at
Mazatlan within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals
10 to 15 inches.

Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 to 15 inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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