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Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
600 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 106.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 106.5 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease
in forward speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California
near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected
to become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
A pressure of 1002.8 mb (29.61 inches) was recently reported at
Islas Marias.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals 10 to 15 inches.

Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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