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Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours
elsewhere in the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 105.8 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move near or over the Islas Marias archipelago
in a few hours.  Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of
California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland
Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to
become a tropical storm again later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should soon begin in the Islas
Marias, and will spread northward over the remainder of
the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero
to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through
Monday night.  Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
from Oaxaca to Nayarit.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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