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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

...NARDA WEAKENING AND POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 109.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 109.7 West.  Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is expected, and Narda is forecast to become a
tropical depression today.  On Wednesday, Narda should degenerate
into a remnant low and dissipate in northwestern mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding
early Tuesday.  Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash
flooding over northwest Mexico.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN