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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Altata to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), data from satellites and surface
observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located inland near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Narda
is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move near or along the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression by
Tuesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening, a wind gust to at least 39
mph (63 km/h) was measured by a private weather observing site in
Culiacan Ejido Canan, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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