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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 107.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 107.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this
evening, but Narda should begin to weaken later tonight and
Tuesday as it intersects with land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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