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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Topolobampo, and also for
the Islas Marias archipelago.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued from Topolobampo northward to Guaymas, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours
elsewhere in the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 105.2 West.  The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will emerge over the Pacific early Monday and move
near or across the Islas Marias archipelago.  Narda is then forecast
to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast
of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the
Pacific Ocean, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm
again Monday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero
to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through
Monday night.  Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
from Oaxaca to Nayarit.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN