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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA MOVING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR LAZARO
CARDENAS...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during
the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of
Narda will move over or near portions of the western and
southwestern coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the
Pacific on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and Narda is
forecast to weaken to a depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the
warning area and should continue for the next several hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night.  Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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