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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.0 North, longitude 100.0 West. The system has been meandering
during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue
during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the
cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Sunday.  However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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