ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. This track
should bring the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
Sunday.  However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

The disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN