ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162019
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
* ISLAS MARIAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 106.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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