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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162019
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO...AND ALSO FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS...MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
* ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 105.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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