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TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 100SE  60SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 330SE 240SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE  60SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  90SE  60SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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