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Tropical Storm NARDA


Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Passive microwave satellite imagery, especially a recent 2326 UTC
SSMI/S pass, continue to show that a small mid-level eye feature has
remained close to the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico since
the previous advisory, with the center now located just inland near
Los Mochis.  Earlier scatterometer surface wind data indicated
winds to near 40 kt about 40 n mi south of the center, and
extrapolation of the position of those winds would place them near
the coast now, and justifies lowering the current intensity to 40
kt.  Deep convection near the center has also decreased markedly
over the past few hours, further suggesting that the intensity has
likely decreased.

Narda has continued moving northwestward at an unusually fast
forward speed, or 325/17 kt. There is no significant change to the
previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on Narda maintaining a northwestward
trajectory around the southwestern periphery of a large deep-layer
ridge for the next 48 hours, with the center remaining inland or
very near the coast during that time. The new NHC forecast track is
essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to
an average of the tightly packed consensus model tracks.

Now that Narda's center has moved inland again over the mountainous
terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico, steady weakening is expected
during the next 48 hours.  However, tropical-storm-force winds are
still possible, especially due to funneling along some of the
concave-shaped coastlines near Huatabampito and Guaymas before Narda
weakens to a depression in 24 hours or so.  Terrain interaction
should result in the small cyclone becoming a remnant low or
dissipating by 48 hours.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation.  These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant
moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern
Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains
through at least Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall
and flash flooding in these areas.  For additional information,
please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center at


INIT  01/0300Z 25.7N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER NEAR COAST
 24H  02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

Forecaster Stewart