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Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Narda continues to produce very intense deep convection with cloud
tops colder than -80 deg C.  However, this convection is not
particularly well organized, with the main activity situated in the
vicinity of Islas Marias.  There is little evidence of banding
features at this time.  The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for
now, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB.  The
tropical cyclone should move over very warm waters and in an
environment of moderate southeasterly shear for the next couple of
days.  Due to the interaction of the circulation with the nearby
land mass of southwestern Mexico, only slight strengthening is
anticipated, however.  This is consistent with the fact that none of
the intensity guidance is very aggressive with the system.  It
should be noted that the NHC forecast is above practically all of
the models.

Although the center is not well defined, it appears to still be
moving northwestward, or 315/15 kt.  Narda is expected to continue
moving along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level
anticyclone, with decreasing forward speed for the next day or two.
A trough moving into the southwestern U.S. and northern Baja
peninsula should cause the track to bend a bit to the right in 2-3
days until the system dissipates near the U.S.-Mexico Border.  The
official track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous
one, and close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
predictions.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation.  These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 21.5N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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