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TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 7(31)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 28(37) 5(42) X(42)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 15(37) 4(41) 1(42) X(42)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MANZANILLO 34 1 14(15) 37(52) 10(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65)
MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
L CARDENAS 34 3 8(11) 2(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) 2(28)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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