ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 110.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all the watches and
warnings for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia
to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia
Kino.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 110.5 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion
toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to
move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of
California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland
Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After
that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Lorena is a small cyclone and hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions
are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the
hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts
around 8 inches.

Sonora...3 to 6 inches.

Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN