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Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NEAR LA VENTANA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.  Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located
over land near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 110.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A general
motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during
the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California
Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45
miles (75 km).  An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently
reported sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 86
mph (139 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
The same automated station in La Ventana reported a minimum pressure
of 991 mb (29.96 in).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across
the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over
western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated
maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur.
This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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