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Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

corrected initial latitude

...HURRICANE LORENA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 109.4 West. Lorena is
now moving toward the west near 6 mph (10 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected
later today and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Lorena will move near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later today, and then gradually move away from
the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and Lorena will then
either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical
Storm Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across southern
Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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