ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto
Cortes to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away
from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is possible during the next day or
so. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either
degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash
flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN