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Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
southern Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn
to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue to move near
or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane
warning area this morning, and then move back over water this
afternoon. Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-
central coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is
interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water
again, re-strengthening is anticipated.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
portions of the warning area through this afternoon. Tropical
storm and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning as early Friday night
or Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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