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Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.6 West.  Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
Lorena is forecast to move near or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days as Lorena approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern
portion of the warning area by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and
then are expected to spread northward along the coast through late
Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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