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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lorena Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...LORENA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 111.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
warning for western mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lorena
was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 111.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to
cross the coast of mainland Mexico during the next few hours,
followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall,
Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system is forecast to
dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less
than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico today before subsiding on Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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