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BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF COLIMA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena.  Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.7 West.  Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward
speed is expected to decrease a bit on Thursday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday.  Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the west-central coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward
along the coast on Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are expected to
occur later tonight and on Thursday within the hurricane warning
area.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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