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HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM OF SAN EVARISTO TO SANTA ROSALIA...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS.
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES
TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 109.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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