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TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO
CORTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO
LORETO...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF
PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  45SE  45SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 107.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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