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TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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