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Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours

The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high
terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and
found that Lorena has weakened significantly.  The central pressure
rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt.  These winds are
confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The
cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday.
Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the
shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to
weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls
for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within
the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a
tropical storm.  After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but
heavy rains should continue for another day or so.

Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered
by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high.
This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to
continue on this general track for the next day or two until
dissipation over the Sonoran Desert.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland
Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a
chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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