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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE  70SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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