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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 112.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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