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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 111.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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