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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 111.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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