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TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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