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Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Mario earned an extra life yesterday but has just about reached its
time limit. Satellite images indicate that an earlier burst of deep
convection has dissipated, with only a couple of small disorganized
blobs left over.  If there is no further convective re-development,
Mario will likely be declared a remnant low later this morning.  The
initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in agreement with the latest
satellite estimates.

The depression is nearing cool waters and a drier, more stable
environment.  These conditions should be enough to cause Mario to
continue to gradually weaken and open up into a trough within a
day or so.  The latest intensity and track forecasts are based on
the consensus guidance, tilted toward the global models which
generally do well at this stage of the tropical cyclone life cycle.
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 24.3N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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