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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of
Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to
the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the
weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of
Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB.

Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease
much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone
will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next
week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should
inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further
weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become
a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in
convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical
sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of
the previous advisory.

The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this
afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight.
The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then
be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It
is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could
reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a
remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the
official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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