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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A resumption of northeasterly shear has caused the center of Mario
to peak out to the northeast of its convective canopy. This is the
second day in row that the low-level center of Mario has become
exposed after it developed a low- to mid-level eye in microwave
imagery the previous night. ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC
showed maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity estimate is
still 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling has occurred.

All of the intensity guidance indicates that Mario has already
peaked and should only weaken from now on. Given how the last few
nights have gone, I am not confident that Mario will weaken as
quickly as the models suggest, but it does seem likely that steady
weakening will begin by tomorrow afternoon, if not sooner. The
tropical storm will reach some very cold water by 72 h, and it is
forecast to become a remnant low at that time. The official
intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but it
is above most of the guidance for the first 72 h.

The track forecast remains highly uncertain, especially beyond 24 h.
The guidance spread is a little lower than it was before, but the
run-to-run consistency is still quite low. In general, the models
are calling for less binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario simply lifting northward to north-northeastward in
Lorena's wake. As a result, Mario is now forecast by most of the
models to move closer to the Baja California peninsula than it was
before. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted substantially to
the east beyond 24 h accordingly, and there remains a distinct
chance that Mario will directly affect portions of the Baja
California peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 18.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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