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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the
low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection.
In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this
afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend
of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from
TAFB.

A significant change to the track forecast was required based on
the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now
forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days.
The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much
Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is
further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very
near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC
forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5
days, but confidence in the forecast remains low.
For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of
the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the
first 24 h, given current trends.

Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the
next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce
substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of
significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations
are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is
forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will
likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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