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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Deep convection has persisted around the center of Mario over the
past several hours.  However, the improved appearance of the cyclone
has not yet resulted in an increase in surface wind speeds, as
confirmed by an ASCAT overpass a few hours ago.  The initial
advisory intensity remains at 55 kt and this is in agreement with
the latest objective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

With the recent increase in organized convection, Mario is likely
starting a phase of intensification while over warm waters and in a
moist atmospheric environment.  However, this strengthening should
be limited due to northeasterly shear being aided by outflow from
Hurricane Lorena near the Mexico coast.  After 36 hours, Mario is
forecast to begin moving into a drier and more stable atmospheric
environment while still undergoing shear from nearby Lorena.  This
should cause a gradual weakening trend through 96 hours.  After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters in the
same hostile environment, which should cause it to degenerate to a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast
is near the previous one and is on the higher end of the consensus
aids.

Mario has turned to the north and the initial motion is now 355/6
kt.  The combination of weak steering currents, and a possible
subtle interaction between Mario's and Lorena's circulation should
induce a slow north to north-northeast motion over the next couple
of days.  After that time, mid-level ridging is expected to develop
over northern Mexico which should cause Mario to turn northwestward
with an increase in forward speed.  The official forecast is near
the ECMWF and lies just a little to the right of the previous
forecast through the first few days, and very near it thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 15.9N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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Forecaster Latto

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