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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the
previous advisory.  However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass
indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a
well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around
2300 UTC.  There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt
from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high
end.  Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55
kt in the middle of the range.

Mario's future still depends on Lorena.  At the moment, the storm
is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt.  The track models continue to
show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena.  On
the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario
becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a
backwards-S track as it moves generally northward.  On the other
hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it
allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not
much wiggle in its track.  Visible satellite images showed quite a
bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena,
which leads me to believe that there will at least be some
interaction between the two cyclones.  Given that, the NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the
east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model.

Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more
favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours,
which should foster some strengthening.  Mario is forecast to
become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies
between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model.  Weakening
is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly
shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with
Lorena.  Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both
the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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