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Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the
cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western
semicircle.  While the subjective estimates are unchanged from
earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the
increased convective organization trend on satellites.  Thus the
initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.

Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated
for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered
over northwestern Mexico.  A slow west-northwest track is forecast
at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global
models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since
the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm
Lorena.

With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems
probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear,
warm-water environment.  Interestingly, the guidance is actually
lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any
reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast
ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back
upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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