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TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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