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TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 113.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 113.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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