ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko Discussion Number 51 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP132019 500 PM HST Tue Sep 24 2019 The low level center of Kiko has been fully exposed all day without any nearby deep convection. Southwesterly vertical shear of 40 to 50 kt, as indicated by UW-CIMSS analysis, along with marginal sea surface temperatures will do that to a tropical cyclone. Today's ASCAT-A/B/C scatterometer passes all showed winds less than 35 kt so Kiko was downgraded to a tropical depression in the Tropical Cyclone Update issued earlier this afternoon. The Dvorak intensity estimates came in at 35 kt from PHFO (held up by constraints), and 30 kt from SAB. The UW/CIMSS ADT value was 25 kt at 25/0000 UTC. Based on a blend of these data, and the expectation that vertical shear will remain strong over the system, Kiko will be designated a post-tropical remnant low with an intensity of 30 kt. The center of Kiko has been moving at 325/13 kt within the shallow layer steering flow. This is a bit to the right of the previous advisory with a faster speed. The movement of the remnant low is expected to gradually become westward, then southwestward, as it spins down and moves within the trade wind flow. The main dynamical objective aids are in agreement with this scenario. The forecast track has been adjusted north due to the initial motion and is close to the HCCA guidance. Dissipation of what's left of Kiko should occur in the next 3 days. This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Kiko. Additional information on this system can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 19.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1200Z 19.5N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 19.6N 142.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 19.1N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 145.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:10:05 UTC