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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kiko Discussion Number  51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP132019
500 PM HST Tue Sep 24 2019
 
The low level center of Kiko has been fully exposed all day
without any nearby deep convection. Southwesterly vertical shear of
40 to 50 kt, as indicated by UW-CIMSS analysis, along with marginal
sea surface temperatures will do that to a tropical cyclone. Today's
ASCAT-A/B/C scatterometer passes all showed winds less than 35 kt so
Kiko was downgraded to a tropical depression in the Tropical Cyclone
Update issued earlier this afternoon. The Dvorak intensity estimates
came in at 35 kt from PHFO (held up by constraints), and 30 kt from
SAB. The UW/CIMSS ADT value was 25 kt at 25/0000 UTC. Based on a
blend of these data, and the expectation that vertical shear will
remain strong over the system, Kiko will be designated a
post-tropical remnant low with an intensity of 30 kt. 

The center of Kiko has been moving at 325/13 kt within the shallow
layer steering flow. This is a bit to the right of the previous
advisory with a faster speed. The movement of the remnant
low is expected to gradually become westward, then southwestward, as
it spins down and moves within the trade wind flow. The main
dynamical objective aids are in agreement with this scenario. The
forecast track has been adjusted north due to the initial motion and
is close to the HCCA guidance. Dissipation of what's left of Kiko
should occur in the next 3 days.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Kiko. Additional information on this system can be found
in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 19.2N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/1200Z 19.5N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 19.6N 142.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 19.1N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 18.5N 145.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
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