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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate
that the cyclone is strengthening.  Recent microwave images
reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better
organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest
satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle.  A blend of
the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity
of about 50 kt.  Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information
about the cyclone's intensity and size later today.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt.  A turn to the northwest
is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing
through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level
ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west.
On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or
west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level
trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on
the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the
central Pacific basin in about 36 hours.

The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight,
but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should
cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday.  Kiko is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it
will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the
short term, but is otherwise unchanged.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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