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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019

There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past
several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates remain unchanged.  Subsequently, the initial intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity
guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could
re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving
over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear
surrounding environment.  After that time, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko
is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days.

Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion
is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a
little south of the previous forecast.  There are no significant
changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory.  Kiko should
turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then
northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough
cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the
Kiko.  Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically
shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back
toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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