ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019
A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced
to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications
were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate
from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.
The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z
showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously
estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the
initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko
moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north
fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC
track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the
previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the
speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model
guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so
confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially
late in the forecast period.
All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as
the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and
dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has
been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest
intensity consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN