ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track consensus aids. Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Dec-2019 12:10:04 UTC